Multiplication Starts Here: Building Leadership Pathways for a Disciple-Making Church (3-part series)

Part 1 — Facing the Leadership Gap in the Australian Church

I’m a stubborn optimist about the future of the church in Australia, even though I am aware of the current trends. And yes, there are glimpses of some positive trends beginning to break through, but these are just glimpses at the moment. I’m also convinced that if we want to see genuine disciple-making and church planting across our suburbs, towns and regions, we’ve got to do more than replace ourselves—we need to multiply leaders.

And with this, I am also convinced that we have all the pieces needed as 'The Church', but we all need to lay our piece down, like a giant jigsaw puzzle, as we are better together, and I believe the future will be even better if we can do it together

Recently, I ran a workshop at Exponential Australia's National Conference and discussed some of the ideas in this 3-part blog series. And I thought, why not just put a few of those thoughts out there, and see if this can't help to continue stimulating 'us' forward, as the Australian church moves, hopefully together, towards the future.

So, let’s talk about the gap between what we hope for and what’s actually happening.

It is the gap that we can’t ignore, but also the gap that should discourage us, but rather, drive and motivate us further.

Recent research paints a sobering picture. In the years spanning 2016–2021, only 18% of local Protestant churches in Australia experienced significant attendance growth, while 69% declined (some of that drop is understandably tied to pandemic disruption). (Exponential Australia) Although the most recent NCLS research suggests that the trend is starting to change, it also reveals that some specific denominations are doing the majority of the work on this front.

On the reproduction or multiplication side, the reality is that we just aren't planting at the level needed to replace or renew the Australian Church. The best estimate we can make just before the pandemic (2019) is that

around 1% of Protestant churches in Australia planted a new church in that year.

Over a 10-year window (2012–2021), about one in ten Protestant churches planted at least once. (Exponential Australia) And yet again, this seems to have shifted slightly and increased, but we are still a long way off where we need to be.

When it comes to disciple-making, the largest U.S. study to date (by Exponential and Discipleship.org) reports that

fewer than 5% of churches have a reproducing disciple-making culture.

Less than 5%!

And the scary reality that not even 1 church in the report could be found to have what they said was a,

viral-like disciple making movements

And I get it...

It's a different country, yes—but the pattern maps closely to what many of us see on the ground here. Exponential

In fact, some of the research suggests that Australia may be even worse off in some of these areas about disciple-making and multiplication.

All this said and done, the Australian church has dedicated leaders and great intentions, but when it comes to our outcomes, they just aren’t matching our aspirations.

And here lies some of the problem,

Our intention just isn’t enough.

Many pastors say they’re developing emerging leaders— in fact, 85% of senior leaders report they intentionally develop them, with the most common response being “3–5 leaders” over five years. But that also means that the large majority of leaders are intentionally developing less than 1 leader a year. And I don't mean to paint a bad picture of our church leaders, or just leaders in general, but research suggests that our leaders respond more favourably than what is actually happening...In other words, they think they have a greater effect and influence than they actually do.

If you're a Pentecostal leader, the good news is that you tend to develop higher numbers; mainstream Protestant leaders, unfortunately, you are lower. This is, or at least should be, encouraging—but it also reveals how thin our pipelines can be in practice. ncls.org.au

And let's just add one more layer: across church leaders and congregants, the top barrier to spiritual growth is the general busyness of life.

Even when we care deeply about discipling and developing others, time and capacity pull the handbrake.

Sometimes I wish that we had the abilities like in the Matrix, and we could just call Tank and he would download all we need to ensure that we became experts in the job we needed to accomplish...but unfortunately, this is not the case.

Which just leads us to the next issue.

The systems we build determine the fruit we see

There’s a famous quality-improvement adage (often attributed to W. Edwards Deming):

“Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets.” 

In plain terms, if we don’t like our outcomes, we have to adjust the system, not just try harder.

And whether we like it or not, our systems are not keeping up with demand. It is not to say that there is no worth in our systems, but it is to say that we need to begin addressing our systems, and perhaps add attachments, or radically re-imagine them.

What does that mean for us?

You may land somewhere else, but here are some of my quick thoughts and reflections...

• If we want to see multiplying disciples, we must design disciple-making environments that expect and equip multiplication.

• If we want to see multiplying leaders, we must embed leadership pathways across the whole church—not just internships for the keen few. and

• If we want to see multiplying churches, then we must normalise apprenticing church planters and collaborating beyond our own brand or network.

  
  

But rather than just read my thoughts, work through this yourself, in your own context and see what you find.

Three questions to start the shift

1. What is your current leadership pathway? (Sketch what actually happens, not what you hope is happening.)

2. What fruit is it producing? (New disciples multiplying, Baptisms, apprentices named and coached, leaders sent, churches planted.)

3. What is the desired outcome? (Name it in concrete terms, with timeframes.)

Be honest and specific. Then hold your answers up against the data above. If your pathway is perfectly designed to deliver your current results… what must change?

The imagination moment

I often share a line from Mark Greene (LICC) when discussing leadership development and disciple making:

“98% of Christians are neither envisioned nor equipped for mission in 95% of their waking lives…

WOW!

When I first read that, I almost felt floored!

98% of Christians...

And sure, you might argue against the specific numbers, but regardless of whether it is 98%, 95%, 90% or even 85%...the point is that it is a really big number!

But what he said next, I believe, invites us to dream...

He goes on to say, but

"imagine if they were.” 

Just imagine!

Imagine if we design pathways for the whole church, not just the paid few,

Imagine what the impact across workplaces, schools, families and neighbourhoods would be.

Imagine what influence this would have on our society...

But perhaps more to the point that we are talking about here, imagine how many multiplying leaders and church planters we would have.

In Parts 2 and 3, I’ll unpack some of the most common barriers we’ve heard from churches—and the design moves that help ordinary leaders flourish without adding crushing complexity to already full lives.

But for now, take a moment and reflect.

If you looked five years ahead, what fruit would convince you that your leadership pathway is truly multiplying?

Key takeaway: 

Good intentions don’t multiply leaders—simple, church-wide, relational systems do.

This article was written and created by Andrew Hodgson © 2025.

Published by The Emerging Leaders Program, 2026.